A small refined surplus of about 104,000 tonnes is forecast for 2026, while prices set records.
Why this market is moving now
- Copper prices set records in 2026, peaking on 10 September, as possible US tariffs on refined copper drew metal into the United States.
- Mine supply is growing slowly: world mine output is forecast to rise only 1.3% in 2026 after incidents at two large mines in 2025.
- China uses 59% of the world's refined copper, so its demand sets the tone for the whole market.
- A refined surplus of about 104,000 tonnes is forecast for 2026, widening to 368,000 tonnes in 2027.
Key figures
Global figures for this market, with the year each one describes. Use Cite to copy a reference to this page.
| Figure | Value | Year | Cite |
|---|---|---|---|
| World copper mine production was an estimated 23 million metric tons in 2025, the same as in 2024, and world reserves were put at 980 million tons. | 23 million metric tons | 2025 | |
| Chile mined an estimated 5.3 million metric tons of copper in 2025, more than any other country. | 5.3 million metric tons | 2025 | |
| Congo (Kinshasa) mined an estimated 3.2 million metric tons of copper in 2025, up from 2.99 million tons in 2024. | 3.2 million metric tons | 2025 | |
| China refined an estimated 14 million metric tons of copper in 2025, out of a world refinery total of 29 million tons. | 14 million metric tons | 2025 | |
| World refined copper usage was 28,159 thousand tonnes in 2025 and is forecast at 28,590 thousand tonnes in 2026. | 28,159 thousand tonnes | 2025 | |
| China accounted for 59% of world refined copper usage in 2026. | 59 % | 2026 | |
| World copper mine production is forecast to grow 1.3% in 2026, held back by constrained output at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and the Kamoa-Kakula mine in Congo after incidents in 2025. | 1.3 % | 2026 | |
| The world refined copper market is forecast to show a surplus of about 104,000 tonnes in 2026 and 368,000 tonnes in 2027. | 104,000 tonnes | 2026 | |
| The three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange set several records in 2026 and peaked at $14,875 per tonne on 10 September 2026, as possible US tariffs on refined copper pulled metal into the United States. | 14,875 USD per tonne | 2026 | |
| Codelco of Chile produced 1,307 thousand tons of copper from its own mines in 2025 (restated figure), down 1.6% from 2024. | 1,307 thousand tons | 2025 |
Calculated figures (shares, changes and prices per kilogram) are plain arithmetic on the reported values. Read how we work.
Companies to watch
Codelco
State-owned Chilean miner that produced 1,307 thousand tons of copper from its own mines in 2025.
Freeport-McMoRan
Runs the Grasberg district in Indonesia, where output was still constrained in 2026 after a 2025 incident.
Ivanhoe Mines
Operates the Kamoa-Kakula copper complex in Congo (Kinshasa), where output was still constrained in 2026 after a 2025 incident.
What the full report covers
- 01Executive summary
The answer in one page: size, direction and what moves it - 02Market definition and scope
What is in and out of the global market - 03Global market size, 2021 to 2025
Historical series and growth rates - 04Countries and regions
Demand, supply and trade by country and region - 05Outlook to 2031
Base, low and high scenarios with stated assumptions - 06Rules, policy and deadlines
Regulation and programmes that change demand - 07Drivers and barriers
What accelerates or slows adoption, by customer segment - 08Prices, costs and margins
Unit economics where public data allows - 09Competitive landscape
8 to 12 company profiles with recent moves - 10Opportunities and risks
For new entrants, suppliers and investors - 11Method and assumptions
How every figure was built
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Frequently asked questions
How big is the global copper market?
World copper mines produced an estimated 23 million metric tons in 2025. World refined copper usage was 28,159 thousand tonnes in 2025 and is forecast at 28,590 thousand tonnes in 2026.
Which countries produce the most copper?
Chile is the largest miner, with an estimated 5.3 million metric tons in 2025. Congo (Kinshasa) followed with about 3.2 million tons. China leads refining, with about 14 million tons of refined copper in 2025.
Which country uses the most copper?
China accounted for 59% of world refined copper usage in 2026.
What is the copper price in 2026?
The three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange set several records in 2026 and peaked at $14,875 per tonne on 10 September 2026.
Is there a copper shortage or surplus?
The refined copper market is forecast to show a surplus of about 104,000 tonnes in 2026 and 368,000 tonnes in 2027. Mine output is forecast to grow only 1.3% in 2026.
Who are the largest copper producers?
Codelco of Chile produced 1,307 thousand tons of copper from its own mines in 2025. Freeport-McMoRan and Ivanhoe Mines run two large mines, Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula, whose output was constrained in 2026.
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